We’re two months into the 2016 baseball season. So, how’s it going? On my show Hard Hits, I dared to make baseball picks. From division and wildcard winners to World Series, I also took a shot at MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of The Year. So, how am I doing so far?
First, the fail. On our show, more than a few liked the Astros to not only win their division but make the World Series. Unfortunately, that included yours truly. I took Houston to win the whole thing. After getting shutout 3-0 by Arizona, they are a disappointing 25-30 and tied for last in the AL West with the Angels. They trail first place Seattle by seven games. Rating AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel has come back to earth. He allowed three earned in six innings to fall to 3-7 with a 5.50 earned run average.
Keuchel is far from alone. The trade for Ken Giles has been a disaster. They gave up Vincent Velasquez in the deal along with prospect Mark Appel. Let’s just say the Phillies are laughing all the way to the bank. Giles has over a 6.00 ERA and doesn’t even close. He’s already served up four home runs in 22-plus innings. With current closer Luke Gregerson blowing one recently and with 13 saves and a sub-4.00 ERA, their pen is a mess. Only Will Harris has been reliable.
The Astros are a free swinging team which means they’re feast or famine. When they’re hitting, they can be explosive. When they’re not, it can be ugly. Led by George Springer’s 13 dingers, the Astros will hit their share of long balls. As a team, they’ve hit 69 which puts them in the top 10 in the majors. Future star Carlos Correa has yet to find his groove. The 21-year old shortstop has eight homers and 28 RBI’s. The 2015 AL ROY hasn’t gotten hit a hot streak. When he does, he can carry his team for a stretch. Rookie first baseman Tyler White started out hot but his average has plummeted to .224 with a .307 OBP. Evan Gattis has six dingers but that’s about it. Luis Valbuena is similar with the same total. Colby Rasmus has eight.
Houston does boast one of the league’s best in All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve. The 26-year old 5-6, 165 pound wizard continues to get it done both at the plate and in the field. A former batting champion who also led the AL in stolen bases in 2014, he’s been brilliant hitting .330 with nine homers and 31 RBI’s and 42 runs scored. The speed demon is also deadly on the base baths going 15-for-16 in stolen bases. There’s nothing he can’t do. A Gold Glover last year who always gets on-base, Altuve is easily one of the game’s most exciting players. If only some of his teammates took his approach.
If they are to get back in the race, the Astros will need better starting pitching. It starts with Keuchel and second starter Collin McHugh. Both got off to miserable starts. However, McHugh has showed signs. His last three starts have been better and he’s coming off a complete game win in which he fanned eight. That followed up a 10-K outing in a no-decision. McHugh has 26 K’s in his last 21-plus. If he and Keuchel can be better, that would be a step in the right direction. Lance McCullers has only made four starts. He should round into form. Mike Fiers has been hittable giving up more hits (70) than innings pitched (61.1) with a 4.84 ERA. Doug Fister has been serviceable winning four games with a rotation best 3.86. That can’t be.
Basically, it comes down to pitching and timely hitting. The Astros are too talented not to make a run. There’s plenty of season left. The calendar just hit June.
Other AL Division picks are looking promising. The defending World Champion Royals have recovered from a poor start. They’re doing what they always do. Come back from huge deficits. They decimated the White Sox by rallying in all three games against their bullpen. They do it with clutch hits. It’s not always pretty. They can nickel and dime you to death. Infield hits count just the same. Eric Hosmer is the only consistent hitter entering tonight at .328 with 10 dingers and 35 RBI’s. The first baseman remains one of the best kept secrets. He’s developing into one of the game’s bright stars. He has a .921 OPS.
With Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas sidelined, Lorenzo Cain has finally picked it up. The do it all center fielder has quietly gotten his average over .300 with eight homers and 34 RBI’s. He got out very slowly striking out a lot while not driving the ball. But the pesky Cain stuck with it. Kansas City has gotten contributions from Jarrod Dyson (10 stolen bases) and youngsters Chester Cuthbert and Whit Merrifield.
As predicted, Ian Kennedy has been a good fit for the Royal Crown. He’s got four wins with a 3.03 ERA and 59 K’s in 59.1 innings. He and ace Edinson Volquez have done the job. The other starters have struggled mightily, including perplexing power baller Yordano Ventura. Danny Duffy has filled in for injured Kris Medlen with solid results. Mets reject Dillon Gee actually got a start the other day. That’s how bad it is. Yet somehow the Royals are in first with a 30-22 record. They’re in Cleveland for a big four-game weekend series. The Indians look like more of a threat than the White Sox. The talent is there. It’s just whether the Indians can figure it out.
As usual, the Royals are strong at the end of games with the duo of Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis. Herrera has a 1.04 ERA with 32 K’s in 26 innings while Davis is nearly flawless with 16 saves and a 0.89 ERA. Amazingly, former Yankee starter Chien-Ming Wang has supplied effective middle relief with a 2.29 ERA. It’s a great story about a guy whose career was ruined by a Interleague game running the bases. What a shame. But there he is in probably his last gig doing a sound job for KC. Good for him.
The Red Sox have been as expected. In first place with a 32-21 record just ahead of the surprising Orioles, all they do is rake. In his final season, David Ortiz continues to terrorize opposing pitchers. His 16th home run has Boston in a 5-5 tie at Camden Yards where the baseball has been flying out. So much so that AL MVP pick Mookie Betts recorded his first career three-homer game. How did the electrifying lead-off man follow that up? By slugging two more last night for five dingers over two games. Only 23, Betts is a legit star who has 14 homers and 42 RBI’s with 51 runs already. He also has eight steals. Why did I trade him in fantasy again? I’m still kicking myself over a trade I made two years ago. He’s also a great right fielder with a flair for big catches.
With Jackie Bradley, Jr. erupting to become a true offensive threat with a .337 batting average, nine long balls and 37 knocked in, Boston just became a lot more lethal. I always liked his defense in center field. The offense has come from nowhere. Xander Boegarts is a hit machine who should challenge for a batting title. He’s hitting .347. Basically, the shortstop is everything Joc Pederson was supposed to be with the Dodgers. Talk about a one trick pony. The Red Sox lucked out with Travis Shaw, who has easily replaced fat cat Pablo Sandoval. Hanley Ramirez has been okay at first and has hit okay. But it’s a far cry from what was expected. Four home runs and 31 RBI’s is hardly great production for the former All-Star.
The question is how the rotation holds up. David Price has finally settled down after a awful start. Astonishingly, he’s 7-1 despite over a 5.00 ERA with seven homers served up. But the Red Sox score runs. So, run support isn’t an issue. Knuckleballer Steven Wright has been a wunderkind pitching to a 2.45 ERA with 61 K’s and five victories. There’s something about Boston. They find these guys. Tim Wakefield had great success at Fenway Park too. With Wright pitching well, suddenly a 1-3 of Price, Wright and Rick Porcello isn’t too bad. But what about Clay Buckholz and his 6.34 ERA being moved to the pen? Sad state. Joe Kelly is awful. Why is he even in the majors?
The Red Sox’ bullpen isn’t great either. Craig Kimbrel has 12 saves and a 2.95 ERA. He can implode. Former closer Koji Uehara still sets up despite being 41. Junichi Tawaza also sets up. Even with the pitching uncertain, their offense more than makes up for it. I’d also rather have their 1-3 starters over the Orioles.
Baltimore is very similar. They can really hit. Mark Trumbo has been great with 15 long balls. He always belonged in the AL. Forty homers is possible. Imagine if he and Chris Davis both reach 40 and knock in 100. Manny Machado is their best player, beating out Adam Jones. With over a .300 average and 13 dingers, the young 23-year old Gold Glove caliber third baseman shows no signs of slowing down. Second baseman Jonathan Schoop continues to evolve. At some point, Jones will get going. He’s hitting a paltry .238 entering tonight with five homers and 23 RBI’s. So should J.J. Hardy when he returns.
The Birds’ rotation scares nobody. Chris Tillman is their best going 7-1 with a 2.92 ERA and 61 K’s in 64-plus. Impressive. With Ubaldo Jimenez continuing to be a disappointment, it’s up to youngster Kevin Gausman. He has yet to record a win despite decent outings. In eight starts, he is 0-3 with a 3.78 ERA. He’s allowed nine homers in 47.2, including three in his last start. He also fanned 10. Gausman should improve. Tyler Wilson has been decent with a 3.83 ERA but doesn’t strikeout guys. Yovani Gollardo is on the DL with right shoulder bicep tendinitis. They’ll need him back for the second half.
If there is one edge Baltimore has, it’s their pen. Closer Zach Britton is one of the best. With a 1.21 ERA and 15 saves, the lefty continues to be lights out. With Darren O’Day joined by Brad Rach, the Orioles can finish games. The pitching remains a giant question mark. Their hitting is good enough to stay in it. Especially with the Yankees struggling.
Don’t count out the Blue Jays. They can crush the ball. Even with Jose Bautista off to a bad start and Troy Tulowitzki making his daily DL appearance, last year’s AL MVP Josh Donaldson has 13 dingers and 37 knocked in. Bautista is hitting lead-off. He has 11 home runs. Edwin Encarnacion has 10. Russell Martin is still batting under .200 but has shown signs with three homers in the last week. They actually have gotten a huge contribution from Michael Saunders, who has nine dingers.
Toronto has gotten consistent pitching from J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Aaron Sanchez. Estrada has been their best. Despite only three wins, he’s permitted just 42 hits in 66 and two-thirds with 26 walks and 58 strikeouts. That’s a 2.43 ERA. Very good. He’s out-shined Marcus Stroman, who’s been inconsistent despite a 5-1 mark. Sanchez has blossomed into a solid starter. He’s 5-1 with a 2.99 ERA along with 64 K’s in 72.1. As for Happ, they can’t ask for more than his 6-2 start with a 3.06. So far, so good. Veteran knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has only two wins with a 4.64 ERA.
The Jays’ pen is basically power closer Roberto Osuna. With a 1.13 ERA, 12 saves and 27 K’s in 24 innings, the 21-year old Osuna should dominate for years to come. They’ve gotten good set up from Gavin Floyd. The former starter is over a strikeout-per-game. Joe Biagini and Jesse Chavez also come out of the pen. Once reliable lefty Brett Cecil is on the DL with a left triceps strain. He could return sometime this month.
It’s kinda ironic that it’s the Jays’ pitching keeping them in games. The offense has been inconsistent. Figure that to turn around.
As for awards, I took Betts for MVP. Along with a few Red Sox’ mates and the usual remarkable performance from Mike Trout despite a truly awful roster, those are your top candidates. Robinson Cano is having a monster year with the first place Mariners. The All-Star second baseman has 16 homers along with a league-leading 48 RBI’s. Last year, he hit all of 21 long balls and knocked in 79. Most of it coming in the second half. Trout is at .313-12-40 with a .980 OPS. Miguel Cabrera is quietly over .300 with 12 dingers and 32 RBI’s. Todd Frazier leads the junior circuit with 17 homers for the White Sox. But he doesn’t hit a high enough average. I have always been a huge fan of him at the hot corner. At least he’ll get more attention in Chicago.
AL Cy Young, I believe I picked Chris Sale. He’s always been one of my favorite starters. So far, the southpaw has dominated for the most part going 9-1 with a 2.29 ERA. With 76 K’s in 78.2 and just 53 hits allowed with only 16 walks, Sale looks like the front runner in a thin league. Sidekick Jose Quintana leads the AL in ERA (2.13). The surprising revelation of lefty Rich Hill continues. He just won AL Pitcher of May. The vet is 8-3 with a 2.25 ERA and 74 K’s 64 innings for the Athletics. Boston gave him a chance last year in a recall and he made the most of it. A great comeback story. Keep an eye on Indians’ Danny Salazar and the Rangers’ Cole Hamels.
As for the top rookie, I can’t remember who I had. Right now, the Rangers’ Nomar Mazara is the most impressive candidate. Since coming up, he has nine homers with 24 RBI’s which both pace the AL. He also is hitting .299. It’s not a strong class. Byung Ho Park also has nine dingers but is hitting only .211 and has 18 runs knocked in. Hardly what you expect from a 29-year old South Korea import. Maybe someone develops in the second half and challenges Mazara. Byron Buxton is back up for the Twins. But he still hasn’t proven he can hit.
Unlike the Senior Circuit which features Dodgers shortstop phenom Corey Seager and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, the Junior Circuit is weak when it comes to first-year players. There’s also the Cards’ Aledmys Diaz who also plays short. The Mets’ Steven Matz is the one starter in a stronger class.
